This article will be a little more technical than the previous one (link to chicken and fast1) which will be partially repeated and explored in more depth.
Meat consumption in Italy is undergoing a transformation. The most recent data show a gradual reduction in overall consumption and a shift in demand from red meats to white meats, considered lighter and more in line with new dietary habits. Agricultura.it In this context, chicken plays a central role both in domestic consumption (mediated by supermarkets) and in out-of-home consumption (driven in particular by fast food chains and chains specializing in chicken). la Repubblica Feeding
The objective of this chapter is to compare the role of supermarkets (as a proxy for household consumption) and chicken/fast food chains (as the most industrialized segment of the restaurant industry) in the distribution and consumption of chicken meat in Italy. The estimated volumes, the structure of business models, and the environmental and economic implications will be analyzed.
A look at meat and poultry consumption in Italy
According to recent data from the Meat Consumption Observatory, meat consumption in Italy stands at around 78–79 kg per capita per year , a slight decrease (about −2%) compared to previous years. Agricultura.it Italy remains below the European average for meat consumption, despite maintaining meat as an important component of the diet. Agricultura.it
On the white meat front, data from the poultry sector indicate that in 2024, per capita consumption of white meat reached 22 kg per inhabitant , the highest level in the last ten years and an increase of approximately 3.7% compared to the previous year. La Repubblica Meat market analyses confirm that white meat is gaining ground , while red meat is losing share, both in terms of volumes and consumer perception. Feeding ilmiobusinessplan.com
On this basis, it is reasonable to assume that chicken represents a significant portion of the total meat consumed in Italy. The figure of 22 kg of white meat per capita implies, for a population of approximately 59 million inhabitants, an order of magnitude of over 1.2 million tons of white meat per year. Since chicken constitutes the predominant portion, the calculations in this chapter estimate that chicken consumption is around 1.5–2 million tons per year , including both home and away consumption (derived estimate, not official data).
The role of catering in the Italian food system
The Italian restaurant sector represents a key component of the food supply chain. The FIPE 2024 Restaurant Report indicates that the sector generated added value of €54 billion in 2023 , up from the pre -pandemic period. Italian Restaurant Magazine A subsequent analysis, based on the FIPE 2024 Report, reports a total turnover of over €92 billion for the restaurant sector and over a million employees, highlighting the strong recovery and economic impact of out-of-home dining. blog.tilby.com
In this context, fast food restaurants (fast food, quick service, chains) are one of the most dynamic segments, with higher growth than the industry average, while the overall number of businesses shows slight signs of consolidation. Confcommercio blog.tilby.com Although official data do not report specific chicken volumes by channel, the weight of global chains in the poultry supply chain is frequently highlighted in industry reports, especially in relation to procurement policies and production standards Alimentando.
Distribution of chicken between home and out-of-home consumption
Since there are no official statistics that say exactly “how many tons of chicken are sold in supermarkets” and “how many in fast food chains”, the estimates I propose are based on:
- official and para-official data on:
- total meat consumption it ilmiobusinessplan.com
- consumption of white meats in the Republic
- economic weight of the restaurant industry tilby.com Italian Catering Magazine
- the distinction between domestic consumption (large-scale retail trade/supermarkets) and out-of-home consumption (Horeca/catering);
- transparent quantitative hypotheses on the distribution shares.
The percentages used (for example: share of chicken consumed outside the home or share of fast food in total restaurant meals) should therefore be understood as reasoned estimates and not as official data.
Estimated share of household consumption (supermarkets)
Considering that:
- The restaurant industry generates tens of billions of euros in revenue tilby.com Italian Catering Magazine
- but food consumption in Italy still remains largely domestic,
It is realistic to estimate that approximately 60–70% of chicken consumed in Italy is purchased in supermarkets and eaten at home, while the remaining 30–40% is consumed through restaurants (bars, restaurants, canteens, fast food outlets, etc.). These percentages are consistent with the economic importance of restaurants and the persistence of a dietary model in which home cooking still plays a dominant role. Agricultura.it blog.tilby.com
If we assume a total of approximately 1.5–2 million tonnes of chicken per year, the supermarket share is therefore, in terms of order of magnitude, between 1.1 and 1.3 million tonnes per year (estimate).
Estimated out-of-home (catering) share
Complementarily, the catering industry would absorb 0.5–0.8 million tons of chicken per year . This macro-category includes:
- fast food chains and chicken chains;
- traditional restaurants;
- pizzerias, bars, bistros;
- company and school canteens.
Industry literature and market analyses indicate that fast food restaurants and chains are growing in importance, both in terms of number of seats served and their ability to standardize consumption.
Chicken and fast food chains in the “out of home” sector
Chicken chains’ share of out-of-home chicken
Fast food restaurants don’t necessarily account for the majority of the industry’s revenue; however, chicken is much more central to fast food chains than to traditional restaurants. Specialty chicken chains (like KFC) base their business model almost entirely on chicken, while generalist chains (like McDonald’s or Burger King) dedicate a significant portion of their menus to chicken, especially in sandwiches, snacks, and options for younger consumers.
Based on this centrality of chicken, it is plausible to estimate that chicken/fast food chains handle approximately 35–45% of the chicken consumed outside the home. Applying this range to the estimated volumes for the restaurant industry (0.5–0.8 million tonnes), we obtain an order of magnitude of approximately 0.2–0.33 million tonnes of chicken sold annually via chicken and fast food chains in Italy (estimate).
Traditional catering, canteens and other channels
The remaining portion of chicken consumed outside the home (approximately 0.35–0.5 million tons per year) would be absorbed by traditional restaurants, trattorias, pizzerias, bars, and canteens. In these contexts, chicken is typically just one of many main course options or ingredients, and is not the main focus of the food offering, unlike in specialized chains.
Let’s now make a structural comparison of supermarkets versus “chicken chains”
The consumption model in supermarkets (family consumption)
In supermarkets and large-scale retail outlets, chicken is sold primarily as a raw product (fresh or frozen), sometimes processed (marinated, breaded, ready-to-cook). Consumption is:
- planned (part of the weekly shopping);
- controllable by the consumer (portions, frequency, cooking method);
- flexible: the same amount of chicken can be distributed across multiple meals or people.
In this channel, chicken is important, but it shares space with many other categories (red meat, fish, legumes, plant-based products, eggs, etc.), and the consumer directly sees the weight (in kg) of the purchased product.
The consumption model in “chicken chains” and fast food restaurants
In chicken chains and fast food restaurants, consumption is:
- standardized: sandwiches, nuggets, wings, bucket;
- often impulsive or occasional, linked to offers, delivery, convenience;
- portioned into “invisible” units in terms of kg (menus, boxes, portions).
Chicken is the star of the menu: all communication, product design, and pricing structure revolve around chicken. This centrality makes chicken a “default product” for certain consumption occasions (quick lunch, dinner with friends, food delivery), with a significant ability to drive demand.
And what about the environmental impact of the two canals?
International life cycle analyses (LCAs) estimate an average impact for chicken in the order of 4–6 kg of CO₂ equivalent per kg of meat, considering the main production and processing stages. Using a conservative average value of 5 kg CO₂e /kg, orders of magnitude can be obtained per channel (these are our own calculations, not present in the cited sources).
NB: the CO₂e (Carbon Dioxide Equivalent) is a standardized unit of measurement that converts the impact of different greenhouse gases (such as methane, nitrous oxide) into a single, comparable value based on their ability to warm the planet relative to CO₂. It is calculated by multiplying the quantity of a gas by its Global Warming Potential (GWP) , allowing the total climate impact to be quantified in a single figure for comparing different emissions.
CO₂ , or carbon dioxide , is a colorless, odorless gas essential for life (photosynthesis), but in excess, often due to the use of fossil fuels and deforestation, it becomes a powerful greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming; it is an integral part of the carbon cycle and is found in nature, but human activities have significantly increased its atmospheric concentration, with significant impacts on the climate, and it is also used in fire-fighting systems and for inflation, such as in life jackets.
- Supermarkets (family consumption)
With 1.1–1.3 million tonnes of chicken consumed annually, this equates to 5–6.5 million tonnes of CO₂e /year associated with chicken consumed at home. - Chicken chains / fast food
At 0.2–0.33 million tonnes per year, emissions would be between 1 and 1.7 million tonnes CO₂e /year. - Traditional catering and other out-of-home channels
At 0.35–0.5 million tonnes, the order of magnitude is 75–2.5 million tonnes CO₂e /year.
To these numbers, however, we should add:
- Energy consumption of the premises (kitchens, air conditioning, refrigeration);
- Packaging and single-use packaging, particularly relevant in fast food restaurants;
- Food waste is often higher in restaurants than in home consumption.
Italy compared to Europe and the related implications
Available studies indicate that meat consumption in Europe is also evolving, with a common trend toward a reduction in red meat and an increase in white meat. Italy is slightly below the European average for total meat consumption, but with similar trends in terms of a growing preference for chicken. Agricultura.it In many European countries, the penetration of global chains (McDonald’s, KFC, Burger King, etc.) is even more pronounced than in Italy, which suggests that the share of chicken intermediated by chicken chains may be higher in some markets.
In essence, we can therefore summarize that some key points emerge from the comparison between chicken/fast food chains and supermarkets:
- In terms of volume , supermarkets remain clearly dominant, probably carrying 4–6 times more chicken than chicken chains.
- In terms of product centrality and ability to drive demand , chicken chains have a disproportionate weight compared to volumes: chicken is the axis around which their entire business model revolves.
- environmental perspective, both channels contribute significantly to chicken-related emissions; however, fast food outlets add additional layers of impact with packaging, delivery logistics, and potential waste.
- For policies to reduce impact or transform consumption, we can therefore consider it strategic to act both:
- on domestic consumption (choices in large-scale retail trade, information, portions),
- both on chicken chains (menu reformulation, protein alternatives, supply chain standards).
In this regard, it will be important to address the Extended Digestive Circuit (EDC) as the foundation of Responsibly Generated Value (RGR), both concepts and original works of the author © 2025-2026 Pietro Greppi. All rights reserved.
These topics will be explored further in the near future.
